Jon,
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The main thing holding “large” providers back from rolling out IPv6 across the board is cost … you’ll have to increase the effective costs of IPv4 to $100 per IP before you’ll be at a point where the cost savings of switching
to IPv6 outweigh the costs of depreciating the current IPv4 capable kit and going through natural expansion / upgrades to kit capable of IPv6
Vendors have been slow to produce kit which is IPv6 capable .. they’re starting to do this, but on the whole the big players have been holding off on the $xx million capex spend until the kit they have in place has depreciated sufficiently.
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Whilst I agree with the majority of your points here, especially the CPE device point – it’s possibly worth highlighting some of the work UK access networks
have done on this.. We did a panel discussion on this topic at UKNOF (Disclaimer: that’s me with the Northern Accent chairing it) which highlighted there has been significant research on v6. Can be viewed online here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I97uRcdNxDc
As you’ve already said - the one point which came out was essentially, ipv6 adoption will really start to take hold when ipv4 runs out or is not cost effective
to play the market place for it. CGN works to a certain level, but becomes difficult and expensive quickly as you scale this up – especially with certain logging requirements and so on but we aren’t at a point where cost is forcing ipv6 take up.
As a side note, agree with the rollout – something I’m doing at a Business Incubator network we manage. The fully managed network will all be v4/6 dual stacked,
with the raw IP network being offered /56 or /60s. I expect very little take up as being quite honest, I still don’t believe the consumer demand is there.
Chris