2009-03 New Draft Document Published (Run Out Fairly)
PDP Number: 2009-03 Run Out Fairly Dear Colleagues, The draft document for the proposal described in 2009-03 has been published. The impact analysis that was conducted for this proposal has also been published. You can find the full proposal at: http://www.ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2009-03.html and the draft document at: http://www.ripe.net/ripe/draft-documents/ripe-471-draft2009-03.html We encourage you to read the draft document text and send any comments to address-policy-wg@ripe.net before 20 October 2009. Regards, Filiz Yilmaz Policy Development Manager RIPE NCC
The impact analysis states: Reducing the default allocation and assignment period (in three steps) to three months also means that, in the RIPE NCC service region, the industry as a whole will run out of unassigned IP addresses shortly after the RIPE NCC registry runs out. In principle, no LIR will have an excess amount of free addresses left from previous allocations to grow their business for more than three months. I think that is a good thing since it preserves the level playing field nature of RIPE allocation policy. This is far better than having a sudden drastic policy change take effect when the last /8 is allocated. In addition, the 2010 start date gives LIRs enough planning time to get management approval for activities to mitigate the problem, such as deploying IPv6 and forcing low-margin customers off of IPv4 to free the remaining IPv4 addresses for high-margin customers. --Michael Dillon
Filiz Yilmaz wrote:
PDP Number: 2009-03 Run Out Fairly
Dear Colleagues,
The draft document for the proposal described in 2009-03 has been published. The impact analysis that was conducted for this proposal has also been published.
You can find the full proposal at:
http://www.ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2009-03.html
and the draft document at:
http://www.ripe.net/ripe/draft-documents/ripe-471-draft2009-03.html
We encourage you to read the draft document text and send any comments to address-policy-wg@ripe.net before 20 October 2009.
Regards,
Filiz Yilmaz
Policy Development Manager RIPE NCC
The new proposed policy text at the draft document under section "6.0 Policies and Guidelines for Assignments" states some fixed dates for reducing the assignment period. Those are based at the predictions made by Geoff Huston using the data of current assignment rates. What if people realize IPv4 addresses become scarce and there will be a massive run on the last available pool, then the final date of exhaustion will be a lot sooner than projected. I think 2009-03 is a decent proposal, but should be based on on the pool of available address space trough time and not using fixed dates. For example: - When the available pool of allocatable IPv4 address space is at or below an /6, the RIPE NCC or the LIRs will start assigning enough address space to End Users to meet their needs for a period of up to nine months. - When the available pool of allocatable IPv4 address space is at or below an /7, the RIPE NCC or the LIRs will start assigning enough address space to End Users to meet their needs for a period of up to six months. - When the available pool of allocatable IPv4 address space is at or below an /8, the RIPE NCC or the LIRs will start assigning enough address space to End Users to meet their needs for a period of up to three months. With kind regards, Michiel Klaver IT Professional
I support this proposal with fixed dates as currently written on the given link (version 1.0/submission date 7 April 2009). -----Original Message----- From: address-policy-wg-admin@ripe.net [mailto:address-policy-wg-admin@ripe.net] On Behalf Of Michiel Klaver Sent: dinsdag 22 september 2009 16:32 To: address-policy-wg@ripe.net; filiz@ripe.net Subject: Re: [address-policy-wg] 2009-03 New Draft Document Published (Run Out Fairly) Filiz Yilmaz wrote:
PDP Number: 2009-03 Run Out Fairly
Dear Colleagues,
The draft document for the proposal described in 2009-03 has been published. The impact analysis that was conducted for this proposal has also been published.
You can find the full proposal at:
http://www.ripe.net/ripe/policies/proposals/2009-03.html
and the draft document at:
http://www.ripe.net/ripe/draft-documents/ripe-471-draft2009-03.html
We encourage you to read the draft document text and send any comments to address-policy-wg@ripe.net before 20 October 2009.
Regards,
Filiz Yilmaz
Policy Development Manager RIPE NCC
The new proposed policy text at the draft document under section "6.0 Policies and Guidelines for Assignments" states some fixed dates for reducing the assignment period. Those are based at the predictions made by Geoff Huston using the data of current assignment rates. What if people realize IPv4 addresses become scarce and there will be a massive run on the last available pool, then the final date of exhaustion will be a lot sooner than projected. I think 2009-03 is a decent proposal, but should be based on on the pool of available address space trough time and not using fixed dates. For example: - When the available pool of allocatable IPv4 address space is at or below an /6, the RIPE NCC or the LIRs will start assigning enough address space to End Users to meet their needs for a period of up to nine months. - When the available pool of allocatable IPv4 address space is at or below an /7, the RIPE NCC or the LIRs will start assigning enough address space to End Users to meet their needs for a period of up to six months. - When the available pool of allocatable IPv4 address space is at or below an /8, the RIPE NCC or the LIRs will start assigning enough address space to End Users to meet their needs for a period of up to three months. With kind regards, Michiel Klaver IT Professional
On 22/09/2009 15:31, Michiel Klaver wrote:
What if people realize IPv4 addresses become scarce and there will be a massive run on the last available pool, then the final date of exhaustion will be a lot sooner than projected.
I think 2009-03 is a decent proposal, but should be based on on the pool of available address space trough time and not using fixed dates. For example:
There are several ways of trying to determine when to kick in the smaller assignment windows: - static dates (currently used in the proposal) - date based on amount of address space left - variants of date based on historical run-rate (i.e. move to 9 months when there is an estimated 9(+X) months of address space left, based on previous run-rate) Would it be possible for RIPE to provide some information on their current run-rate? Nick
Dear Nick,
Would it be possible for RIPE to provide some information on their current run-rate?
Please find the amount of IPv4 address space allocated over the last twelve months below: month IPs IPs in slash notation 2008-10 3266560 /11,/12,/16,/17,/18,/20,/21 2008-11 3047424 /11,/13,/14,/15,/17 2008-12 3274752 /11,/12,/16,/17,/18,/19,/20,/21 2009-01 6502400 /10,/11,/15,/16,/19,/20,/21 2009-02 4182016 /11,/12,/13,/14,/15,/16,/17,/18,/20 2009-03 2643968 /11,/13,/18,/20,/21 2009-04 2478080 /11,/14,/16,/17,/18,/20 2009-05 3629056 /11,/12,/14,/15,/16,/18,/19 2009-06 4540416 /10,/14,/16,/18,/21 2009-07 2844672 /11,/13,/15,/16,/18,/19,/21 2009-08 7272448 /10,/11,/13,/14,/15,/17,/18,/19,/20,/21 2009-09 1277952 /12,/15,/16,/17 The twelve month average is 3746645 IPs or a bit over /11,/12,/13. Best regards, Alex Le Heux RIPE NCC
On 25/09/2009 13:42, Alex Le Heux wrote:
2008-10 3266560 /11,/12,/16,/17,/18,/20,/21 2008-11 3047424 /11,/13,/14,/15,/17 2008-12 3274752 /11,/12,/16,/17,/18,/19,/20,/21 2009-01 6502400 /10,/11,/15,/16,/19,/20,/21 2009-02 4182016 /11,/12,/13,/14,/15,/16,/17,/18,/20 2009-03 2643968 /11,/13,/18,/20,/21 2009-04 2478080 /11,/14,/16,/17,/18,/20 2009-05 3629056 /11,/12,/14,/15,/16,/18,/19 2009-06 4540416 /10,/14,/16,/18,/21 2009-07 2844672 /11,/13,/15,/16,/18,/19,/21 2009-08 7272448 /10,/11,/13,/14,/15,/17,/18,/19,/20,/21 2009-09 1277952 /12,/15,/16,/17
taking this and http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/ into account, the run rate is between 2.5 and 3 /8s per annum; alternatively, a /8 will be gobbled up in about 4 months under normal circumstances. Turning this around, the "what do we do with the last /8" discussions really revolve around what to do with 4 months worth of address space. So, if people are proposing radical changes to the assignment policy, does it really make sense to do so for a mere 4 months of run-time. Or probably a lot less, if address stock-piling and panic sets in? I can't help seeing this as a knee-jerk reaction to the unknown. The current date-based suggestion in 2009-03 currently works out as starting the "Run Out Fairly" proposal about a year before IANA depletion, and 2 years before RIR depletion (according to Geoff Huston's estimates), with the 3 month window kicking at around the IANA depletion date and about year before RIR depletion, or given RIPE NCC's burn rate and proposal 2008-03, between 4 and 13 months before RIPE depletion, depending on how things pan out. I.e. if the RIPE NCC were to receive 2 x /8 immediately before IANA exhaustion, then there would be about 4.2*3 = 13 months space available. At the other end of the scale, if the RIPE NCC were almost exhausted at the time that IANA gets to its last 5 /8s, then there would be only a little more than 4 months address space available. Limiting allocations / assignments to 3 months worth of address space would be fine if we knew that this policy were to last around 12 months. However, if it were only to operate on 4 months worth of space, that would be a bad thing, because it would introduce new guidelines at a time of market consternation / panic. I'd like to propose that last minute tweaks are objectively bad - and 4 months is very last-minute. Please excuse the thinking-out-loud thing going on here. It just seems that we need to model RIPE's run-out process carefully so that we have a good idea of when IANA will assign the RIPE NCC its last /8s, and what policies are in place to deal with them (whether 2009-03 or "last /8" type). Has any modelling of this form been done within the NCC? Using naive projection, I'd suggest that the RIPE NCC may be in line to get 2x/8 in 2010-05, 2011-01 and possibly 2011-09 before it receives the last /8. Going by this finger-in-the-air estimate and Geoff Huston's prognostications, the RIPE NCC will either be at the end of its previous 2x/8 or will just be starting off on a new 2x/8 when it receives the last /8 disbursement. This would suggest that there is a significant risk that 2009-03 will end up running its 3 month requirement window period at a time when the RIPE NCC only has enough space for 4 months worth of assignments. I find that alarming. Nick
participants (6)
-
Alex Le Heux -
Filiz Yilmaz -
Mark Scholten -
michael.dillon＠bt.com -
Michiel Klaver -
Nick Hilliard