I agree it is a guess, but also should be an easy estimation(not very accure one but rough one) if we taking burning rate of past 36 month into account. I think NCC can clearify this future.

On Tuesday, 20 October 2015, Elvis Daniel Velea <elvis@velea.eu> wrote:
Hi James, Gert,

On 10/20/15 4:06 PM, Gert Doering wrote:
Hi,

On Tue, Oct 20, 2015 at 02:02:38PM +0100, James Blessing wrote:
On 20 October 2015 at 13:46, Marco Schmidt <mschmidt@ripe.net> wrote:

     https://www.ripe.net/participate/policies/proposals/2015-05
Can we limit it this to a /X to see what the impact is before throwing
the entire remaining v4 space under a bus?
not a bad idea, I like it.
We're in discussion phase right now, so everything goes... :-) - this is
really the phase where a proposal test the waters to see if it is generally
acceptable (potentially with minor corrections), needs larger surgery, or
is a total no-go...
let's collect the feedback and see if we need to come back with a second version.

(As for the impact: I hope the NCC will nicely do the math for us how
many LIRs we currently have that would be eligible to receive "more space"
and what their crystall balls have to say on the subsequent run-out date ;) )
Let's not forget that the crystal ball is just that... a guess. Nobody can predict how long will the free pool last.
- I hope this also answers Lu's question/comment.
gert
cheers,
elvis



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Kind regards.
Lu