On 20/10/2015 14:06, "address-policy-wg on behalf of Gert Doering" <address-policy-wg-bounces@ripe.net on behalf of gert@space.net> wrote:
(As for the impact: I hope the NCC will nicely do the math for us how many LIRs we currently have that would be eligible to receive "more space" and what their crystall balls have to say on the subsequent run-out date ;) )
Using the figures provided by RIPE earlier in the month [0] there were 6990 active LIRs with their final /22 on 1st October, of these 4383 (61.3%) signed up after 14th September 2012. So that's 4383 LIRs that would be able to request a further /22 every 18 months.
From the above report the allocation rate of v4 addresses is 8.5 /22s per day, 18 months after this policy gets implemented that might rise by 61.3% (the percentage of new LIRs with their final /22) to 13.7 /22s per day, it could then rise to 22.1 /22s per day 18 months after that.
Assuming that the policy gets implemented in January 2016 and the allocation rate increases as I've calculated above then RIPE would run out of IPs in May 2019, less than 4 years from now. Assuming all LIRs who have bothered to get their final /22 could get these additional /22s every 18 months then RIPE would run out in of v4 addresses in June 2018, less than 3 years from now. For these reasons I do not support this proposal. [0] - https://labs.ripe.net/Members/wilhelm/ipv4-in-the-ripe-ncc-service-region-t hree-years-after-reaching-the-last-8 P.S. Apologies if our corporate mail server mangles this email. -- Duncan Scotland Plusnet plc | www.plus.net <http://www.plus.net/> Tel: 0114 220 0081 Registered Office: Plusnet | The Balance | 2 Pinfold Street | Sheffield | S1 2GU Registered in England no: 3279013 This email and any attachments contains Plusnet information, which may be privileged or confidential. It's meant only for the individual(s) or entity named above. If you're not the intended recipient, note that disclosing, copying, distributing or using this information is prohibited. If you've received this email in error, please let me know immediately on the email address above. Thank you. We monitor our email system, and may record your emails.