Dear Shane,
That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant. 2155 / 365.25 = 5.9
Many companies in fact had reserves, while they thinked about future. I think the most intresting changes we will see during next 12 month. Amount of requests IPv4 from last /8 can rapidly increase (in 2-5 times). -- Alexey Ivanov LeaderTelecom 04.02.2013 18:02 - Shane Kerr написал(а): All, On Friday, 2013-02-01 15:09:58 +0100, Mirjam Kuehne <mir@ripe.net> wrote:
We allocated the 1,000th /22 from the last /8. Please read more on RIPE Labs:
[1]https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-sla[..]
Just so I understand... It took 140 days to allocate 1000 addresses, or about 7.14 address per day. There are 2^14 /22 in a /8, or 16384. At that burn rate, it will take about 2150 days to finish out the last /8. (16384 - 1000) / 7.14 = 2155 That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant. 2155 / 365.25 = 5.9 Based on Google's numbers, IPv6 has roughly doubled as a percentage of traffic for the last 3 years... if this continues for the next 6 years, we'll have about 70% of traffic over IPv6 when the RIPE NCC really, REALLY runs out of IPv4 in this region. (Of course, if it continues for 7 years then 140% of traffic will be over IPv6.) ;) It looks like there's likely to be a window of time where new entrants won't be able to get any IPv4 space, and a significant percentage of users will still be IPv4-only. Should we tweak the policy now to make it harder to get IPv4 address space, or wait a few years? It seems slightly unfair to future entrants, but the whole IPv4 allocation model has always vastly favored early entrants, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about it yet. Cheers, -- Shane [1] https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-slas...