On 04/02/2013 13:13, Shane Kerr wrote:
All,
On Friday, 2013-02-01 15:09:58 +0100, Mirjam Kuehne <mir@ripe.net> wrote:
We allocated the 1,000th /22 from the last /8. Please read more on RIPE Labs:
https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-slas... Just so I understand...
It took 140 days to allocate 1000 addresses, or about 7.14 address per day.
There are 2^14 /22 in a /8, or 16384.
At that burn rate, it will take about 2150 days to finish out the last /8. (16384 - 1000) / 7.14 = 2155
That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant. 2155 / 365.25 = 5.9
Based on Google's numbers, IPv6 has roughly doubled as a percentage of traffic for the last 3 years... if this continues for the next 6 years, we'll have about 70% of traffic over IPv6 when the RIPE NCC really, REALLY runs out of IPv4 in this region. (Of course, if it continues for 7 years then 140% of traffic will be over IPv6.) ;)
It looks like there's likely to be a window of time where new entrants won't be able to get any IPv4 space, and a significant percentage of users will still be IPv4-only.
Should we tweak the policy now to make it harder to get IPv4 address space, or wait a few years? It seems slightly unfair to future entrants, but the whole IPv4 allocation model has always vastly favored early entrants, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about it yet.
Deckchairs... deckchairs... Nigel