Michael, New entrants typically want to see predictable prices or else
they simply don't enter.
I think you are underestimating the amount of uncertainty that is dealt with in business plans.
After a transfer scheme is in place, and speculators take up the remaining free pool, the price of IPv4 will be wildly unpredictable. That situation will block new entrants.
No, it will make it more risky to do so. What _will_ block new entrants is no new IPv4 being available at all, never mind at currently unknown prices.
However, there is another aspect which involves IPv6. Large ISPs are already deploying IPv6 trials in order to be prepared for the day when they cannot grow their networks with IPv4.
"already deploying IPv6 trials" Should be production ready, oh when would you say, then?
This means, that a new entrant into the Internet business, can realistically use IPv6 technology and expect to be able to buy full connectivity to all IPv4 and IPv6 Internet sites from one of the larger ISPs.
Thank you for elucidating (quite clearly!) the problem.
They will leave that to the larger upstream ISPs
Great stuff! Even clearer. NRM